When a new technology emerges, it is not simultaneously adopted by the entire market. Different segments adopt it over time, and so does AI.
Whether you're already well into AI or still figuring out if it can make a difference for you, there are others like you. The adoption of AI follows the same pattern as other technologies. That's because even though AI is in many ways very, very different from what we've been used to, we're still human, and we have the same motivations, curiosity, and caution. However, the degree of our curiosity and willingness to take risks determines how quickly each of us embraces new technology.
In conversations with business leaders and employees, I am often asked when it is the right time to start using AI. The standard answer has been "better now than tomorrow,” but the answer is actually more nuanced because it depends on the person or company and the goal.
This article describes when different groups adopt new technology during its market diffusion and why they do so. It can help you understand where, for example, generative AI is on the adoption curve and where your industry, your company, and you are.
Wherever you are on the curve is okay because it is your natural approach to new technology. Of course, you can change your approach, but that is up to you. ****
The typical curve looks like the illustration below. Adoption occurs over time and is divided into segments of people or companies with similar appetites for new technology.
Innovators and early adopters are the first 15% of a market to embrace new technology. They do this before everyone else, partly because they are curious about the technology and partly because they want to be first. If the new technology is helpful to them, it gives them a competitive advantage.
They are highly experimental, have a high risk-tolerance, and are committed to achieving new competitive advantages before anyone else, regardless of how much time and money they spend on it. They accept a high failure rate and waste in the process because they believe the results can outweigh any costs.
Early majority: People or companies in the early majority segment are keen to gain competitive advantages using new technology. However, they prefer to wait until the first positive examples exist in the market. The early majority use the early results of innovators and early adopters to understand the right place to start.
They do this to avoid spending too much time and resources on use cases that do not provide positive ROI. The early majority segment is about 30% of the market.
Late majority: This segment does not focus on being first but on minimizing mistakes and unnecessary costs. They will typically only adopt new technology when other companies or people like them are doing it and when there are many positive examples from their industry. The late majority typically represents 40%.